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Tencent Music Entertainment (TME): Bought Growth Meets Membership Test

Published September 22, 202617 min read·TickerFile Research · Tencent Music Entertainment (TME)
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Tencent Music Entertainment closed the Ximalaya long-form audio deal in mid-May, and the second-quarter print shows how little of the headline growth was earned inside the old music apps. Almost the entire year-over-year revenue increment came from the newly consolidated platform rather than from faster subscriptions. Purchased audio contributed $60 million of the roughly $72 million increase. That is the investment debate in one sentence. The equity is no longer a clean mix-shift story from social entertainment into high-margin membership. It is a test of whether an expensive audio acquisition can restart organic growth after management stopped publishing the subscriber metrics that used to prove the flywheel.

Membership services still expanded, but the pace looks softer once the Ximalaya contribution is acknowledged, and social entertainment kept shrinking as both volume and revenue-share ratios faded. Music related services now dominate the mix, helped by concerts, merchandise, and Super VIP add-ons that management treats as the second engine. Gross profit held nearly flat as a share of sales even as offline performance costs and long-form audio content costs rose, because karaoke revenue-share fees fell in parallel. Operating expenses climbed faster than sales after acquisition amortization entered the run-rate. The cash pile remains large and operating cash generation accelerated, which is why the balance sheet still looks like a fortress even as reported first-half profit fell on the absence of last year's deemed-disposal gain.

The August results also disclosed new borrowings that were absent at year-end, a jump in goodwill and intangibles, and a large open-market repurchase already well below the prior peak. The American depositary share now sits near the bottom of its fifty-two-week range after the session sold off on the print. The market is paying a single-digit earnings multiple for a still-profitable, cash-generative franchise that just spent heavily to buy audio scale. Whether that multiple is too harsh depends on organic membership, not on another quarter of purchased revenue. The next several prints decide if Super VIP plus Ximalaya content can lift the paying base without quarterly user metrics, or if competition from ByteDance's Soda Music and NetEase Cloud Music keeps the subscription engine in a lower gear.