RXO is an asset-light freight broker whose second-quarter print finally shows the volume and mix turn that the Coyote purchase was supposed to unlock. Truckload volume grew even as industry demand stayed soft, and a sharp lift in spot mix produced the strongest sequential gain in gross profit per load in four years. The operating period closed June 30, 2026. The debate is whether that mix shift is the start of a lasting brokerage recovery or just a tight-capacity rate spike that inflates billing without lifting cash earnings.
Revenue jumped to $1.8 billion, a step-up that looks like a cycle turn until the income statement is unpacked. Gross profit actually slipped even as sales rose, because purchased transportation absorbed the rate move faster than contract sell prices reset. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, the cash-earnings proxy management uses, only edged up to $40 million. Brokerage gross margin compressed into the low double digits. That is the opposite of a clean operating-leverage story: the company is winning loads in a tight truck market and still converting almost none of the extra billing into residual profit.
Management guides third-quarter adjusted EBITDA between $35 million and $45 million and looks for low-to-mid single-digit brokerage volume growth. An early-September operating update said August truckload gross profit per load rose more than 10 percent from July, with spot mix near half of full-truckload volume. First-half operating cash still ran negative as receivables funded the growth. Does the spot-led recovery produce cash and contract-rate catch-up, or does working-capital absorption and legal overhang in last mile keep the equity priced for a mid-cycle earnings base that has not yet arrived?