ReNew Energy Global is no longer being priced as a multi-year India renewables compounder. On August 11 the board signed a binding United Kingdom scheme of arrangement under which Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and founder Sumant Sinha acquire every share the consortium does not already own. Cash-out holders receive a fixed $7.02 a share. Eligible holders may instead elect to roll into the private company, though Indian residents are limited to cash and a two-hundred-shareholder cap can force small electors back into cash. The special committee has indicated it intends to recommend the scheme. Nasdaq last printed $6.84 on the publication date, so the residual public claim is now mostly a closing-process instrument rather than a growth-multiple debate.
The operating company underneath that instrument is still compounding. Commissioned capacity reached about thirteen gigawatts by late June and climbed further after quarter-end once new solar came online, even after a small farm-down. First-quarter total income rose to $506 million as external module and cell sales joined a larger operating fleet. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, the cash-earnings proxy management uses to run the fleet, rose to $321 million. Cash flow to equity, the residual cash after project debt service that actually belongs to shareholders, slipped because scheduled loan repayments and interest stepped up. Grid curtailment in Rajasthan cut solar plant-load factors, and manufacturing margins compressed as new industry capacity arrived.
The investment question has therefore inverted. If the scheme receives shareholder approval, English court sanction, and the named India, Belgium and France clearances before the long-stop date in early calendar 2027, cash holders collect a known price and rollover holders inherit a private Indian platform that the buyers already control. If the scheme breaks, the public float is re-exposed to a still-levered independent power producer whose manufacturing profits are normalising and whose next construction year still has to clear weather, grid, and offtaker collection. Does the residual Nasdaq price compensate for that break risk, or is it already treating close as the base case?