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Ferrari (RACE): Scarcity Economics Meet a Polarizing Electric Launch

Published September 20, 202615 min read·TickerFile Research · Ferrari (RACE)
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Ferrari is still extracting more profit from fewer cars, and the June quarter showed that the scarcity model is working even while Maranello changes over almost the entire range. Net revenues rose 8%. Personalization ran above 20% of cars and spare-parts sales, enough for management to lift full-year targets after a quarter in which shipments fell on purpose. The equity debate is not whether the combustion and hybrid book is sold. It is whether the brand that supports a luxury multiple can absorb Luce, the first fully electric Ferrari, after a May reveal that drew public scorn from a former chairman and a sharp share-price drop.

The operating tension is mix versus perception. The order book covers all of 2027, and models such as the 12Cilindri family and the 296 Speciale are already allocated for their runs. Against that, Luce arrived as a four-door electric car designed with Jony Ive's LoveFrom studio. The car is priced near $640 thousand and was treated by parts of the enthusiast community as a break with the house style. Management later said Luce orders were arriving in line with plans from both repeat and new clients. That claim is the entire second-half test: an addition to the portfolio, or the start of a substitution that cheapens residual values on the cars collectors actually want.

The July results also returned cash with a May dividend and ongoing buybacks under a multi-year repurchase authorization of about $4 billion through the end of the decade. The shares closed at $407 on the publication date, well below last year's peak and still at a high-thirties multiple on trailing earnings. The next few quarters decide whether personalization stays elevated as depreciation rises in the second half, and whether Luce remains a contained experiment rather than a brand event that rewrites the multiple.