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Plexus Corp (PLXS): High-Mix Cycle Tests Cash Conversion

Published September 20, 202617 min read·TickerFile Research · Plexus (PLXS)
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Plexus just recast a mid-single-digit electronics manufacturing story as a high-complexity growth cycle. Sales of $1305 million exceeded the company's own range as Industrial and Aerospace/Defense programs ramped together. The investment debate is no longer whether demand returned. It is whether that demand converts into residual cash after inventory, a richer tax rate, and a more concentrated customer book.

Industrial mix rose to 45 percent of quarterly sales, pulling the franchise toward semiconductor capital equipment and a new data-center battery program. GAAP earnings slipped even as volume surged because accelerated stock awards tied to executive retirements and a global minimum tax absorbed the residual. Cash cycle compressed to 62 days. That is the best mark in more than five years and the quality argument the bull case needs. Adjusted operating margin, which excludes stock-based compensation, met the high end of guidance. The tension is that the income statement looks cleaner on an adjusted basis than the cash-flow statement does.

Management now guides full-year sales growth above 20 percent and a fourth quarter that still expands sequentially. Thirty-one new manufacturing programs and a record qualified funnel support that claim. Free cash flow, defined as operating cash minus capital spending, still used cash in the quarter. Management now expects a usage for the full fiscal year. The next several quarters resolve whether the funnel funds itself or whether growth keeps consuming the balance sheet.