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Ponce Financial (PDLB): Treasury Option Meets New York Credit Growth

Published September 20, 202620 min read·TickerFile Research · Ponce Financial (PDLB)
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Ponce Financial Group is no longer just another New York community bank grinding out a better spread. The second quarter is the first period in which management says the lending tests under its Treasury preferred-stock option have been met, which turns a four-year capital experiment into a live corporate-action clock. Ponce Bank, a Bronx-based minority depository and community-development lender, has been using a $225 million Emergency Capital Investment Program preferred issue from mid-2022 to fund a much larger multifamily and construction book. The equity debate is no longer whether the franchise can grow. It is whether Treasury and the bank regulators allow a discounted repurchase of that preferred before New York credit, wholesale funding, and a shrinking common-equity cushion start to define the stock instead.

The operating print supports the growth half of that argument and only partly supports the quality half. Net interest income reached $30 million, and the margin printed 366 basis points, five basis points above the prior quarter and well above the year-ago level. Loans and deposits both advanced by about a tenth since year-end, with almost all of the loan lift coming from multifamily rather than from a broad book. Diluted earnings available to common were $0.35 for the quarter and $0.71 for the first half, a clear step up from last year, yet sequential net income was essentially flat because provision, pay, and fee income all moved the wrong way. Common book value is $13.89, up $1.55 from a year earlier, and tangible book equals stated book because the company carries no goodwill.

What the market is actually pricing is a bank that has already earned a mid-cycle multiple on the earnings recovery, not a completed Treasury exit. At $20.31 the common trades at roughly one and a half times tangible book and about fourteen and a half times trailing earnings, with no common dividend and a holdco common-equity ratio that has drifted down to 11.51 percent as risk-weighted assets grew. The bull case is a closed repurchase at a large discount to the $225 million face, which would recast common book and remove a perpetual senior claim. The bear case is that the option stays open while construction and rent-regulated multifamily credit do the talking. The next several quarters resolve whether the preferred clock or the credit clock runs first.