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Nexa Resources (NEXA): Control Changes Hands as Zinc Cycle Turns

Published September 19, 202617 min read·TickerFile Research · Nexa Resources (NEXA)
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Nexa Resources is no longer only a zinc story. Votorantim agreed in late August to exchange its controlling block for newly issued Boliden shares, handing a Swedish metals group the majority vote and leaving the New York listed minority in front of a later cash tender priced off that same exchange ratio. The operating company underneath that transfer is finally generating the cash the last several years of ramp and disruption were supposed to produce. The investment debate is whether the listed stub is a zinc cycle equity or a claim on a tender that only opens after the control close.

The second quarter print showed that the cycle is doing real work. Adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization rose to $286 million as silver prices and own-mine feed lifted mining. A May fire at the Cajamarquilla smelter still cut metal sales, so the earnings quality is better in the mines than in the plants. The Cerro Lindo silver stream stepped down in May, so Nexa now keeps most of that mine's silver rather than delivering it to a streaming counterparty. A Peruvian tax settlement of $131 million absorbed cash in the same quarter, which is why free cash flow stayed slightly negative despite the earnings surge.

Shares recently traded near $13. That sits below the roughly $15 implied on the Votorantim block. Last-twelve-month adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization cleared $1 billion. Net leverage compressed toward one and a half times. The open question is whether the promised tender arrives at a premium that matches the control block, or whether the public float remains a listed minority under a new parent that already holds the vote.