Methanex is the world's largest methanol producer sitting at the intersection of a rebuilt North American asset base and a geopolitical supply squeeze that has pushed realized prices far above the recent cycle. The second-quarter print is not a demand story. It is a shortage story: Middle East supply left the market while Geismar, Beaumont, and Natgasoline kept running. Average realized price jumped to $529 a tonne from the prior quarter's $351, a move that turned a modest first-half franchise into a cash machine. The investment debate is whether that combination is a one-quarter windfall or the first clean look at what the post-acquisition, post-Geismar Three franchise earns when the industry is short.
The cash was real. Adjusted EBITDA reached $577 million against $220 million in the first quarter. Operating cash of $439 million paid off the remaining Term Loan A balance of $290 million. That is the balance-sheet use of a windfall: retire acquisition debt rather than chase a larger dividend. The counterargument is already on the page. Management flags a July-August realized-price band of $460 to $485 and a lower third-quarter EBITDA print if produced sales hold. Titan in Trinidad is now indefinitely idle, and a $115 million after-tax impairment sits in GAAP earnings. North American scale is the new earnings engine. The Trinidad chapter is closing.
Full-year production guidance still sits near nine million tonnes of methanol plus a small ammonia contribution from Beaumont. The shares trade near $61, roughly double the fifty-two-week low, with an enterprise value near $8 billion. Trailing earnings multiples look stretched because impairments crushed GAAP profit. Forward earnings multiples look cheap if the shock persists. The question the next two quarters resolve is simple. Does realized price settle closer to the mid-cycle $360 area that defined last year, or does a tighter industry keep the franchise earning well above that level on a larger North American book?