InnovAge Holding Corp. is the largest United States PACE operator by participants, selling a fully capitated, full-risk care bundle to frail dual-eligible seniors rather than a Medicare Advantage plan or a fee-for-service clinic. The latest fiscal year showed that center-level medical economics can expand when nursing-facility use and pharmacy spend fall. That operating recovery is real. It is not yet a clean earnings story, because a large litigation accrual still kept GAAP results near break-even and because two private-equity sponsors still vote the company.
Revenue reached $989.7 million, up from $853.7 million, as census and capitation rates both increased. Center-level contribution margin expanded to 23.0 percent of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $94.6 million. Those are operating facts, not a completed turnaround for public owners. GAAP still recorded a $0.7 million net loss after $57.0 million of litigation and settlement expense, so owners are paying for both better medical management and unfinished legal cleanup.
Management guides next-year revenue to a range of $1.05 billion to $1.085 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $105 million to $115 million. That outlook assumes modest Medicare rate growth as the V28 risk-model blend rises, plus more census in existing centers rather than a new-center wave. The public equity is a claim on a still-concentrated, government-priced medical-risk book, overlayed by an 83 percent sponsor stake and a resale registration covering most of that block. Price appreciation already capitalizes a large part of the operating recovery; remaining upside depends on converting Adjusted EBITDA into durable GAAP earnings without another enrollment sanction or a disorderly sponsor distribution.