Edison International, the holding company behind Southern California Edison, operates one of the largest electric-only utilities in the United States, serving more than five million customer accounts across a 50,000 square mile service area. The company's financial story is anchored by a capital program that is expected to drive rate base growth of approximately 7% per year through the 2030 period. Management has reaffirmed core earnings per share guidance for the current year and provided forward guidance that represents growth at the high end of the company's long-term target range.
The central tension in the equity is not the growth plan, which is well understood and regulatorily protected, but the Eaton Fire. In January 2025, the wind-driven Eaton Fire in Los Angeles County caused loss of life and substantial property damage. SCE has recorded $1.6 billion in losses related to settlements entered through its Wildfire Recovery Compensation Program. The company has recovered substantial amounts from customer-funded self-insurance and the AB 1054 Wildfire Fund, and the fund administrator has confirmed the Eaton Fire as a covered wildfire with approximately $21 billion in claims-paying capacity available. A bellwether jury trial is set for January 2027. The equity currently prices the base case of full or near-full recovery under the safety certification prudency framework, and that assumption carries meaningful tail risk.