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Century Aluminum (CENX): A Capacity-Restart Pivot

Published August 22, 202623 min read·TickerFile Research · CENTURY ALUMINUM CO (CENX)
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Century Aluminum is the owner and operator of primary aluminum smelting facilities in the United States and Iceland and the majority owner and managing partner of the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica, and the question for the next twelve months is whether the company can convert the completed restart of the last 90 pots at Mt. Holly, the return of Line 2 at Grundartangi to near full production, the new Jamalco power generation turbine (TG4) online in August, the $94.3 million 2025 45X refund, and the cash position that exceeded total debt as of the end of July into the kind of capacity-ramp operating leverage the company has been telegraphing. The Q2 2026 print was the cleanest test yet of that thesis, and the cleanest signal is that the company reported a Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century of $326.9 million and a Q2 2026 Adjusted net income attributable to Century of $257.3 million. The combination of the Q2 2026 aluminum shipments of 130,632 tonnes, the Q1 2026 aluminum shipments of 122,865 tonnes, the Q2 2026 net sales of $752.1 million, the Q1 2026 net sales of $649.2 million, the Q2 2026 net income attributable to Century of $249.3 million, the Q1 2026 net income attributable to Century of $337.5 million, the Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $2.39, the Q1 2026 diluted EPS of $3.23, the Q2 2026 Adjusted net income attributable to Century of $257.3 million, the Q1 2026 Adjusted net income attributable to Century of $170.7 million, the Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS of $2.46, the Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS of $1.63, the Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century of $326.9 million, the Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century of $231.4 million, the completed restart of the last 90 pots at Mt. Holly, the return of Line 2 at Grundartangi to near full production, the new Jamalco power generation turbine (TG4) online in August, the 2025 45X refund of $94.3 million received in July, the cash position that exceeded total debt as of the end of July, the Q2 2026 net sales increase of $102.9 million sequentially driven by an increase in realized metal prices and higher shipments attributable to increased production from the Mt. Holly expansion and restart of Line 2 at Grundartangi during the quarter, the Q1 2026 one-time gain on sale of Hawesville of $287.9 million, the favorable realized LME and regional premium prices, the increase in gain on insurance proceeds related to Iceland equipment failure of $7.1 million, the favorable power price realization due to improved weather conditions in the United States, the unfavorable raw material price realization, the $8.0 million of net exceptional items, the $61.3 million related to equipment failures in Iceland, the $38.9 million of unrealized gains on derivative instruments, the $2.5 million of share-based compensation, the Mt. Holly expansion project expenses of $10.7 million, the Q2 2026 favorable realized metal prices, the Q2 2026 sales mix and operating expenses, the Q2 2026 favorable power price, the Q2 2026 liquidity position of $784.9 million, the Q2 2026 cash and cash equivalents of $343.4 million, the Q2 2026 restricted cash of $44.8 million, the Q2 2026 combined borrowing availability of $396.7 million, the Q3 2026 outlook Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century range of $325 million to $345 million, the Chicago, IL corporate headquarters, the United States and Iceland primary aluminum smelting facilities, the Jamalco alumina refinery in Jamaica, and the majority owner and managing partner position is the cleanest single read on what the capacity-restart pivot is producing. The strategic tension is the capacity ramp against the Q3 2026 outlook, and the forward question is whether the company can convert the Mt. Holly restart, the Grundartangi Line 2 return to near full production, the Jamalco TG4 turbine online, the $94.3 million 45X refund, and the cash position that exceeded total debt into the Q3 2026 outlook Adjusted EBITDA attributable to Century range of $325 million to $345 million.