the merger agreement under which a Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT Infrastructure VI led consortium is to acquire all outstanding common stock for $15.00 per share in cash, valuing the equity at roughly $10.7 billion and total enterprise at approximately $33.4 billion including assumed debt. The June 26 stockholder vote delivered a 97.92% supermajority in favor, the HSR antitrust waiting period expired June 22, and management has guided that the deal is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027. The stock is currently trading at $14.73, a $0.27 (1.8%) gap below the deal price, which is the entire story the market is pricing.
The quarterly print itself is a sharp operational improvement, and it is the reason the spot price has not collapsed to a 0% spread. Q2 2026 total revenue rose 19.9% year over year to $3,422 million, and the GAAP net result flipped from a $(150) million loss in the year-ago quarter to $387 million of net income, or $0.60 per share on 715 million diluted shares. The Renewables strategic business unit (SBU) drove the upside, with segment revenue up 45.8% to $939 million, and segment Adjusted EBITDA, the non-GAAP measure management uses to evaluate the four SBUs, more than doubled to $369 million. We see this as a credible operating beat that explains the entire 1.8% deal spread: a deal with 97% approval and cleared HSR that trades below the headline price implies a small, residual deal-break risk premium and nothing more.
The single load-bearing risk for the next 90 days is regulatory close-out, not operations. The transaction still needs FERC, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO), the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC), and various foreign approvals. The PUCO process is the most consequential, because AES Ohio is the cornerstone of the integrated platform the consortium is acquiring, and the merger application is still being reviewed through a customary case process. The next data point that tests this is the third-quarter 2026 print (expected early November 2026), where any 8-K disclosing a regulatory denial or a renegotiated price would collapse the deal spread.