Ameren closed its second quarter of fiscal 2026 with diluted earnings per share of $1.13, up 11.9% from $1.01 a year earlier, and reaffirmed full-year guidance of $5.25 to $5.45 per diluted share. The print, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on August 3, 2026, is the load-bearing data point for the equity this quarter: it tells the market that $30.5 billion to $33.1 billion of cumulative capital expenditure from 2026 through 2030 is still translating into regulated earnings, even with mild weather, higher O&M, and rising interest expense in the run-up. Net income attributable to common shareholders of $314 million in the quarter versus $275 million a year ago is, in our reading, the cleanest proof yet that the company's investment-led, formula-rate-and-tracker-regulated model converts spend into per-share growth with a short lag.
The mechanism behind the print, in our view, is straightforward: Ameren Missouri, the largest segment, is now earning on electric and natural gas service rates that took effect in June 2025 and September 2025, and Ameren Illinois natural gas rates took effect in December 2025. Each new dollar of qualifying rate base is, with the help of plant-in-service accounting, the PISA tracker, and multi-year rate plans, accreted into earnings on a defined timetable. The quarter also brought Ameren Missouri's June 2026 electric service rate filing of $343 million based on a 10.25% return on common equity, a 52% common equity capital structure, and a $16.7 billion rate base, with a decision expected by May 2027 and new rates effective by June 2027. We read that filing as the next major ratification of the rate base growth that drives the multi-year EPS trajectory.
The single load-bearing risk, in our view, is regulatory delay or disallowance on the pending Missouri rate case and on the appellate record at the Illinois Commerce Commission. A second, related risk is whether the $31.8 billion midpoint of the 2026-to-2030 capital plan can be funded at an acceptable cost of capital, given that the company already carries $19.1 billion of long-term debt, $1.2 billion of short-term debt, and is selling common stock under a $1.5 billion at-the-market program with 6.4 million shares sitting in forward sale agreements. The falsifiable clock for the thesis is the Missouri Public Service Commission order in the 2026 electric rate review, expected by May 2027, and the third-quarter 2026 earnings print, which lands in late October or early November and should be the first quarter to absorb the 1,600 MW of new natural gas-fired generation capacity that has been pushed through the certificate-of-convenience-and-necessity process.